Blacks for Trump: Is Trump “Pulling” Black Votes, or Are We Just Returning to Politics as Usual?

With rapper/actor Ice Cube announcing his partnership with the Trump Administration and release of The Platinum Plan, Black support for Trump is back in the news. So, what’s the deal with more and more media outlets claiming that Black support for Trump is on the rise (i.e. here and here)? And, while most of the tracking polls that are used to understand Black constituents during election season are severely limited (small number of Black respondents and an unrepresentative sample), the question of whether or not Donald Trump’s attempts to “woo” Black voters, especially Black men, remains an interesting one.

A look at the 2020 Black Voter Project Study suggests that, aside from the compensated rally participants, what appears to be growing Black support for Donald Trump is more of a regression to the historical mean rather than a new phenomenon. It turns out, Donald Trump is actually garnering similar levels of support from Black people as past Republican Presidents, and it is more likely that the “growing” support is mostly from Black Republicans who decided to buck their part loyalty during 2008 and 2012 in support of our nations first Black President, Barack Obama. In other words, with Black support for Trump hovering right around 10 percent, both nationally and in important Battleground States, it is reasonable to think that a significant number of Black Republicans who felt the need to support Obama’s historical presidency have simply returned to their party (see table below).

Considering Black Conservatism has a long and deep history within the African American community, the Republican Party platform’s emphasis on laissez faire economics and personal responsibility has appeal to some Black people. For instance, when respondents from the 2020 BVP were asked why they approve of Trump, Black conservatives attribute their support to “low unemployment levels for Blacks,” for “putting American first,” and of course because he is a Republican. At the same time, we also have examples of Black voters coalescing around a Black candidate on the national stage: Jessie Jackson won 96 percent of the Black vote during the 1988 Presidential Primary. So, it is not surprising that with Obama’s two terms as the clear outliers, a glance at some results from the 2020 BVP reaffirm our hunch that Black support Trump is more a result of Black conservatives returning to the Republican Party after both Black Democrats and Republicans showed historical levels of solidarity during the Obama years.

By examining feeling thermometer ratings (0-100 scale where 100=warmest attitudes) from the 2020 dataset, we can gain useful insight into order of candidate preferences. After breaking the thermometer scale into four categories for ease of interpretation (0-25=very cold, 26-50=cold, 51-75=warm, 76-100=very warm), a comparison of attitudes toward Donald Trump and attitudes toward Barack Obama suggests that while Black Democrats remain steadfast (as do the majority of Black Independents), Black Republicans express similar levels of support for Barack Obama as they do for Donald Trump, breaking away from the rest of the Republican Party that remains adamant about their opposition to the 44th President of the United States (see figures below). For instance, almost the same percentage of Black Republicans express “very warm” attitudes toward both Trump and Obama (40 percent and 39 percent, respectively), suggesting that party identification fails to temper Black Republican support for our country’s first Black President. And, while research shows racial group consciousness is a powerful determinant of African American support for the Democratic Party, support for Obama looks to have transcended party boundaries, at least a little bit.

One last look at the data allow for a closer examination of how Black men and Black woman differ. In general, Black women hold slightly warmer attitudes toward Obama (and colder attitudes toward Trump) regardless of party identification (see figures below). However, the difference between Black men and Black women are greatest for Republicans’ attitudes toward Barack Obama; a 27 point gap separates the percentage of Black men from Black women who express “very warm” attitudes toward the former President. Put another way, while there doesn’t seem to be much of a “gender gap” in Black Republicans’ “very warm” attitudes toward Donald Trump, it appears that the coalescence of Black support for Obama was driven by Black women. Furthermore, a larger percentage of Black women do express “very cold” attitudes toward Trump - over ten percent more, so if Trump (and Republicans) are looking to reclaim any Black conservatives who defected during the Obama years and have yet to return, Black men hold slightly warmer attitudes toward the current president.

All of this is to say, it’s more accurate to frame discussions about Black support for Trump as a return to normal party politics (following a historic first with the election of Barack Obama) rather than a new political phenomenon resulting from ingenious political strategies, such as attempts to feature Black celebrity voices like Ice Cube or Kanye West. (Other reporting has shown that support for a Black candidate, such as Kanye West, running as a Republican will likely receive little to no support from Black progressives.) Moreover, as exit polls already suggested, Black women continue to express stronger opposition to Trump than Black men post-Obama and 2020 BVP data shows this trend even extends to Black Republicans. Ultimately, even though Black Republicans make up a small portion of the entire electorate, understanding the intricacies of Black political attitudes will prove instrumental to orchestrating political victories in elections where even the slightest shift of support can tilt the political table.