Kanye for President: Black Voter Project Results
On July 4th, Kanye West, the grammy-winning, Trump supporting hip-hop star, declared via Twitter that he is entering the 2020 Presidential race:
This is not the first time West has made such an announcement. Kanye West previously expressed ambitions to vie for the Presidency in 2016, and after meeting with Trump, agreed to hold off his bid until 2024. With Trump on the ropes amidst historical protests against police violence and racism, as well as the steady spread of COVID-19 ravaging the country, it appears as if West has reevaluated his Presidential prospects. Within hours of West’s announcement, debates were circulating about whether or not this is a media stunt, if West could even get on the ballot in enough states, and if a West Presidential bid would influence the current campaigns of Trump and Biden - especially when it comes to African American support for each candidate.
Now, at the risk of encouraging further legitimization of West’s Presidential bid, there is an interesting question here regarding the influence Kanye West - as a candidate - may have on Black voters. Also, considering the lack of African American enthusiasm for Joe Biden, and that a few Black celebrity voices have already expressed their support for West, some are already raising concerns that having a Black man in the Presidential race may draw just enough support away from Joe Biden to provide Trump’s struggling presidency a clearer path to the White House. Although we don’t know West’s self-identified party affiliation, his support for President Trump and recent controversial positions about race in America, such as infamously stating that 400 years of slavery for Black people “sounds like a choice,” politically places him closer to conservative Republicans. Research already suggests it is an uphill battle for Black Republicans (or conservative Independents) to win over a large portion of African American voters. For one, the Republican Party has become more and more hostile to conservative African Americans working to try and move the party forward on issues of race. Additionally, the bond over civil rights that the Democrats built with the Black community remains strong, and social expectations continue to make it unlikely African Americans will abandon the party in large numbers.
Still, we have yet to see a conservative Black candidate for President with a profile as big as Kanye West, and Tim Scott’s recent rise to the national political stage leads to interesting conjecture. Plus, it never hurts to take a look at some interesting data for African Americans, and that is exactly the purpose of the Black Voter Project (BVP). Therefore, looking back at the 2017 BVP Pilot Study, we piloted a question asking about a possible Kanye West presidential bid at a time when West arguably could have started to organize a legitimate 2020 campaign. In April of 2017, shortly after West expressed both his his support for President Trump and Presidential aspirations (presumably as a Republican or Independent), we asked African American respondents in six battleground states and California about their feelings toward Kanye West for President: It has been rumored that hip-hop artist Kanye West is exploring a Presidential Bid in 2020. If he were to run, how likely are you to support his candidacy for President?
What we found echoes what most social scientific research suggests: It is unlikely a Black conservative candidate for President will pull a lot of Black support from the Democrats, even a high profile Black celebrity such as Kanye West.
To start, only 8 percent of Black respondents say they are “very likely” to support Kanye for President, with another 6 percent saying “somewhat likely.” Almost three-quarters of respondents say it is unlikely they will support Kanye for President, with 67 percent saying “very unlikely.” And, although 11 percent of respondents are unsure, we know that it is unlikely for African Americans to turn against Biden and the Democrats.
In addition, we also see that if Kanye were to draw some support from African Americans, it likely will pull African American support away from Donald Trump rather than Joe Biden. Of those most likely to support Kanye for President, the largest proportion (36 percent) also “strongly approved” of Trump’s presidency; however, an even larger portion of Trump supporters (43 percent) say it is “very unlikely” they will support Kanye for President speaking to Kanye’s overall lack in viability. (The number of people who “strongly approve” here also make up a very small portion of the total number of respondents, only 28 people, so we really should be taking any findings regarding this group with a grain of salt). Conversely, very few respondents outside of those who “strongly approve” of Trump’s presidency express support for Kanye for President at all. Therefore, we can conclude that in the unlikely event Kanye West is able to launch a full presidential bid, he will only garner the support of a small number of Black voters, and the little support he does receive will not significantly detract from African American support for Biden - if anything, a Kanye West run for President will cause what little support Trump has from the Black community to all but disappear.