The 2024 Black Voter Project (BVP) Longitudinal Study
The 2024 National Black Voter Project (BVP) survey is a longitudinal study of Black public opinion. The survey, in collaboration with Black Insights Research (BIR), is part of a national (nonpartisan) series of public opinion polls that aims to capture the opinion dynamics of the Black community. The first wave was fielded from March 29 – April 18, 2024, surveying respondents about politics and society. A total of 2,004 African-American respondents were interviewed, and the survey had an average interview length of 18 mins.
The second wave, fielded July 27 – August 19, 2024, included 1,621 respondents, 1,146 of which were recontacted after participating in Wave 1 of the survey. The second wave also included an oversample of 475 respondents from 7 swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI), leaving a total of 731 respondents in swing states (recontact and new oversample) for comparison. Wave 2 of the survey had an average interview length of 20 minutes.
The third wave of the survey, fielded October 19 – October 29, 2024, included 1,014 respondents, 845 of which were recontacted after participating in Wave 1 of the survey. Wave 3 of the survey had an average interview length of 20 minutes, and the surveys, administered by YouGov, are stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states.
The surveys, directed by Dr. Christopher Towler (P.I.) and Dr. Christopher Parker (Co-P.I.), serve as the first three (of four) waves leading up to the election. Unlike almost all data on Black communities, the BVP/BIR study is based on a design in which participants are recontacted over a period of time. This is key in that it’s capable of capturing change over time, something other studies aren’t equipped to accomplish. This is rare data: it’s only the second study of its kind in the last forty years, i.e., one that addresses the political preferences and behavior of the Black community.
2024 BVP Wave 3 Results
With the election upon us, the final pre-election wave of the 2024 Black Voter Project (BVP) Longitudinal Survey offers a glance at where Black public opinion and political behavior stand days before the election, and how much has changed since Biden handed over the reins to Harris earlier this year. Since Harris took over the ticket in July, Black support has continued to increase for her and is now over ten percentage points higher for her than it was for Biden in April. Among likely voters – those who say they “Definitely will vote,” Black support is at 84 percent for Harris compared to 13 percent for Trump (+71), insignificantly different from Biden’s 2020 results (87-12; +75).
When it comes to differences between Black men and Black women, support for Harris among Black women continues to lead the way with Black men not far behind. Support for Harris among both groups has increased over time – Black men by 14 percent and Black women by 13 percent; plus, the gender gap has slightly closed from a 7-point difference in August to 5-points in October. Notably, Black support for Trump dropped to 18 percent among Black men and remains steady at around 9 percent for Black women. Among likely voters, support for Harris among Black men registers at 79 percent, while women support her at an astounding 88 percent.
Similar to vote share, favorability for Harris has also grown over time. In August, a measly 42 percent of Black respondents rated Harris very warm on a feeling thermometer scale (8-10 on a ten-point scale). That number jumped 19 points in August after she became the official nominee and then increased another four percentage points from August to October; a total of 65 percent rated her very warm in Wave 3 of the data. Most of the movement was amongst those who rated Harris 3-7 in April as the percentage of people rating her poorly (0-2) remains relatively constant at around 11-14 percent.
Looking at how Black voters report they intend to cast a vote, or the method that they’ve already voted, a plurality (34 percent) say they still plan to vote in person on election day. Another 25 percent say they will vote (or have voted) in person early, before election day, making a whole 60 percent of Black voters either having voted or intending to vote in person.
The larger-than-usual sample of Black voters in the BVP makes confident analyses of sub-groups possible. While there are some measures with less than an ideal number of respondents, a few interesting findings bear mentioning as they offer insight into the current political playing field. For example, of those who reported having already voted (N=134), Harris’ margin over Trump is even more extreme: 93 percent report voting for Harris compared to only 6 percent for Trump.
Furthermore, of the respondents who reported they were either uncertain of their vote choice in August or did not plan to vote at all (N=150), 41 percent now say that they will vote for Harris (compared to 11 percent for Trump); 48% remain uncertain of their vote or still say they do not plan to vote come election day.
Wave 3 of the Black Voter Project survey also asked a number of questions measuring how Black people feel about Kamala Harris beyond their vote choice and feeling thermometer evaluations. For one, respondents were asked if they think Harris represents the needs of Black people. In response, an overwhelming majority (72 percent) said that she represents those needs well, with 40 percent saying extremely well and 32 percent very well.
Furthermore, when asked if a Harris Presidency would lead to real change, 74 percent said they agreed. Here, a majority of respondents (52 percent) say her Presidency “definitely will lead to real change” with another 23 percent saying it will “lead to small change.” On the other hand, only 13 percent believe that “no change will come” from a Harris Presidency.
As previously mentioned, Wave 3 of the survey not only permits us to examine where Black voters are in the final days before the election, but the longitudinal design also allows us to look at how Black attitudes have changed over the course of the campaign. For instance, in April, Black respondents were asked how welcoming they think the Democratic Party is to Black people. While 69 percent of respondents perceived the party as welcoming in April when Biden was still the nominee, only 23 percent said the party was “extremely welcoming.” Over the course of the campaign, the percentage of respondents who perceived the party as welcoming to Black people steadily increased, with a particularly noticeable jump in the number who see the party as “extremely welcoming” (an increase of 14 percentage points from 28 percent in Wave 1 to 42 percent in Wave 3).
Lastly, again, due to the sheer size and design of the survey, there is an opportunity to assess policy preferences in a more complex and complete way. When asked to identify which policy issue is MOST important, issues around the economy rise to the top (similar to polls of the rest of the country). However, issues of health care, civil rights, and abortion are not far behind. That said, issue preferences differ when looking at both vote preferences and gender identity. To start, Black Trump voters prioritize the economy more than those voting for Harris; a larger percentage also identifies immigration, national security, and education as top issues. Conversely, Black Harris voters prioritize health care, abortion and reproductive rights, and civil rights more than Trump voters. In addition, compared to Black women, almost twice as many Black men identify jobs and the economy as their top issues. On the other hand, a larger percentage of Black women report inflation/prices and abortion and reproductive rights as top policy issues.
2024 BVP Wave 2 Results
The second wave, fielded July 27 – August 19, 2024, included 1,621 respondents, 1,146 of which were recontacted after participating in Wave 1 of the survey. The second wave also included an oversample of 475 respondents from 7 swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI), leaving a total of 731 respondents in swing states (recontact and new oversample) for comparison. Wave 2 of the survey had an average interview length of 20 minutes. The surveys, administered by YouGov, are stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states.
2024 BVP Wave 1 Results
Wave 1 of the Black Voter Project (BVP) longitudinal study offer unique insights into Black political attitudes and behavior. The survey, directed by Sacramento State Professor Christopher Towler (in collaboration with Black Insights Research), is a national (nonpartisan) public opinion poll that focuses on collecting rigorous and representative data of Black Americans, something seldom found in Beltway polling. The 2024 National Black Voter Project (BVP) survey was fielded from March 29 – April 18, surveying respondents about politics and society. A total of 2,004 African-American respondents were interviewed, and the survey had an average interview length of 18 mins. The survey, administered by YouGov, was stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states. The survey serves as the first of a multi-wave longitudinal study collecting recontact data in the months leading up to the election.