2024 National BVP Study

The 2024 Black Voter Project (BVP) Longitudinal Study

The 2024 National Black Voter Project (BVP) survey is a longitudinal study of Black public opinion. The survey (in collaboration with Black Insights Research) is part of a national (nonpartisan) series of public opinion polls that focuses on collecting rigorous and representative data on Black Americans. The fourth wave was fielded from December 16 – 30, 2024, surveying respondents about politics and society. A total of 675 African-American respondents were interviewed, and the survey had an average interview length of 18 minutes.

The surveys, directed by Dr. Christopher Towler (P.I.) and Dr. Christopher Parker (Co-P.I.), are the sole multi-wave study of the Black community leading up to, and after, the 2024 Presidential election. Unlike almost all data on Black communities, the BVP/BIR study is based on a design in which participants are recontacted over a period of time, in this case: April-December. Given the dynamics of the 2024 election cycle—especially the elevation of Kamala Harris from VP to the top of the ticket, this data is especially unique since it captures the response of the Black community to the candidacy of the first Black female to the highest office in the land.

The fourth wave includes 630 respondents who were recontacted after participating in previous waves of the survey. The surveys, administered by YouGov, are stratified by age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states. The following toplines offer data for wave four of the survey. Data for previous waves are available separately.

2024 BVP Wave 4 Results

With the election in the rear view mirror, the final wave of the 2024 Black Voter Project (BVP) Longitudinal Survey offers a look at where Black public opinion and political behavior stand post-election, how much things have changed since campaign season started, and what to expect going forward. New survey results offer insight not only into Black public opinion over the course of the campaign but also how Black people feel about politics and society looking toward the future:

• Black support for Harris matched 2020 numbers, with 86% of Black voters choosing Harris compared to 12% voting for Trump.

• Support for Harris among Black men continued to build throughout the election, peaking at 82% of Black male voters on election day.

• The majority of Black voters (57%) opted to vote in person after COVID forced many voters to vote other ways in 2020.

• Almost two-thirds (72%) of Black voters chose to vote for Democrats down-ballot, and few (13%) reported splitting their ballot.

• While more and more respondents perceived the Democratic Party as “extremely welcoming” to Black people over the course of the campaign, attitudes post-election show this trend reversing.

• The majority of Black people disapprove of mass deportation, especially when framed as potentially deporting legal immigrants in the process.

• When asked about the next Democratic candidate for president, the most important feature to Black people is race; the top candidate attribute identified was a Black candidate.

• Almost twice as many Black people feel exhausted and want to be left alone after the election compared to those who report feeling motivated and more committed to politics.

Since Harris took over the ticket in July, Black support continued to increase for the Democratic candidate, essentially matching 2020 numbers in the post-election survey. Of those cast a voter, 86 percent say they voted for Harris compared to 12 percent for Trump (+74), insignificantly different from Biden’s 2020 results (87-12; +75).

Much has been said about Black men moving away from the Democratic Party; however, results suggest that by election time, support among Black men coalesced around Harris. Support for Harris among Black men increased by 24% over time, with 82% of Black men voting for Harris come election day.  Notably, Black support for Trump dropped to 17% among Black men, almost identical to 2020 exit polls putting an end to the narrative that Black men moved to Trump this election cycle once and for all.

In addition, most Black voters took an opportunity to vote in person on election day – a choice many didn’t have in 2020 during the COVID-19 outbreak. Overall, 57% of Black voters reported voting in person, with 31% voting in person on election day and another 26% voting in person early.

When asked how Black people voted beyond the president, it was clear that any split ticket voting was taking place outside of the Black community. For example, 72% of Black voters reported straight-ticket voting for Democrats on down-ballot races; on the other hand, only 13% of Black voters say they voted for some Democrats and some Republicans. (Even though several Democratic wins in statewide races where Trump won at the top of the ticket suggests split-ticket voting may have increased this year, this simply wasn’t the case for Black voters.)[1]

Wave 4 of the survey not only permits us to examine Black attitudes after the election, but the longitudinal design also allows us to look at Black attitudes from the beginning of the campaign to post-election, once Trump was declared the winner. Here, the results suggest that although Black attitudes toward the Democratic Party were growing more and more positive throughout the campaign, that trend reverses post-election. To elaborate, only 28 percent of Black respondents said the Democratic Party was “extremely welcoming” when Biden was the candidate back in April. Then, over the course of the campaign, the percentage of respondents who perceived the party as extremely welcoming steadily increased, jumping 14 percentage points from April (Wave 1) to October (Wave 3). However, in the months following the election, Black attitudes toward the Democratic Party reversed course as only 35% reported the party as extremely welcoming to Black people in December (Wave 4). This finding begins to show the effect of Trump’s victory on Black public opinion and suggests that Democrats have work to do to re-engage Black voters before the next federal election.

Moreover, the survey also asked respondents how they feel about political engagement going forward in the wake of a second Trump presidency. When asked whether a second Trump presidency will motivate them to become more committed to politics or prove exhausting and leaving them wanting to be left alone, the choice was clear. A whole 43% of voters said that a second Trump presidency will prove exhausting and that they just want to be left alone. On the other hand, only 23% of respondents felt motivated by a second Trump presidency and more committed to politics. What’s more, these differences were only exacerbated by gender: 51% of Black women said they were exhausted compared to 34% of men, and 31% of Black men feel motivated compared to only 16% of Black women. This finding suggests that the election of Trump to a second term took an especially large toll on Black women, and, while in the past much attention has been paid to how Democrats will mobilize Black men, Black women may need an extra push to stay engaged going forward as well.  

Finally, the survey asked respondents to consider future Democratic candidates, probing which attributes are most important to Black people. When asked to select the number one attribute they want to see in the future Democratic candidate, 28%  selected a Black candidate, identifying race as the most important candidate attribute going forward. The next important attributes (in order) were a candidate who is politically experienced (19%), highly educated (15%), and younger in age (12%). Undoubtedly, Black voters have a good sense of the type of candidate they want representing the Democratic party in the future.[2] Democrats would be wise to keep these results in mind as motivating Black voters to engage politics in the near future may prove a difficult task.

2024 BVP Wave 3 Results

The third wave of the survey, fielded October 19 – October 29, 2024, included 1,014 respondents, 845 of which were recontacted after participating in Wave 1 of the survey. Wave 3 of the survey had an average interview length of 20 minutes, and the surveys, administered by YouGov, are stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states.

2024 BVP Wave 2 Results

The second wave, fielded July 27 – August 19, 2024, included 1,621 respondents, 1,146 of which were recontacted after participating in Wave 1 of the survey. The second wave also included an oversample of 475 respondents from 7 swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI), leaving a total of 731 respondents in swing states (recontact and new oversample) for comparison. Wave 2 of the survey had an average interview length of 20 minutes. The surveys, administered by YouGov, are stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states.

2024 BVP Wave 1 Results

Wave 1 of the Black Voter Project (BVP) longitudinal study offer unique insights into Black political attitudes and behavior. The survey, directed by Sacramento State Professor Christopher Towler (in collaboration with Black Insights Research), is a national (nonpartisan) public opinion poll that focuses on collecting rigorous and representative data of Black Americans, something seldom found in Beltway polling. The 2024 National Black Voter Project (BVP) survey was fielded from March 29 – April 18, surveying respondents about politics and society. A total of 2,004 African-American respondents were interviewed, and the survey had an average interview length of 18 mins. The survey, administered by YouGov, was stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states. The survey serves as the first of a multi-wave longitudinal study collecting recontact data in the months leading up to the election.