Black Candidate Preferences: An Original Conjoint Survey Experimen
The Black Voter Project (BVP) is a public opinion survey project created in 2016 to fill voids in how social science examines issues of democracy, citizenship, belonging, and political incorporation in the Black community. The BVP has led to peer-reviewed publications, mainstream media op-eds, and reports (such as the Washington Post, Politico Magazine, and the Atlantic, to name a few), collaborative partnerships, as well as data archived with the Roper Center. The BVP is the only ongoing longitudinal survey of the Black electorate, interviewing respondents over a four-year survey project in which three waves of panel data were collected (2019, 2020, and 2022).
The final wave of 2022 BVP (N=1,305) includes an original survey experiment - designed in coordination with Black Insights Research, that used a conjoint experimental framework to test Black attitudes toward potential political candidates for an undisclosed office. Using attribute importance scores, preference shares, and optimal profiles, the conjoint analysis offers insight into what attributes Black respondents consider the most important in candidate selection. The conjoint outputs allow one to quantify preferences for attributes and attribute levels. This information, in the present case, generates the ideal candidate profile, one for whom Black voters are most likely to vote.
The conjoint experiment included in the 2022 BVP offers insight into preferences for hypothetical political candidates defined by attributes like race, gender, age, years in politics, occupation, support for Black Lives Matter (BLM), Democratic Party endorsement (Biden or Sanders), and veteran status.
The results reveal that BLM support and race were the most important factors driving voters' preferences, accounting for 23.6% and 21.1% of preference share, respectively. Specifically, candidates who expressed strong support for BLM were strongly preferred, with a 66% preference share (compared to 23% for opposition to BLM and 11% for non-committal to BLM). Similarly, Black candidates were also preferred, with a 64% preference share (compared to 15% for White, 10% for Hispanic, and 10% for Asian American). Gender was moderately important at 16.8% preference share, with a slight preference for female candidates (54%).
Age and years in politics had a less pronounced impact on preferences, at 7.8% and 7.2% preference share respectively. Voters marginally preferred candidates around 29 years old and with 8 years of political experience. Occupation was more influential at 23.6% share, with the highest preference for corporate lawyers (38%).
A candidate's veteran status also affected preferences considerably, accounting for a 9.8% share. Voters strongly preferred a candidate who was a veteran (59%) versus someone with no veteran status (41%). Democratic Party endorsement by President Biden versus Bernie Sanders mattered less to voters (8% share), with a small majority preferring Biden's endorsement (51%). Lastly, prior military service influenced preferences at 9.8% share, with voters moderately preferring veterans (59%).
Overall, race remains the key driver of preferences for Black male voters, but the importance of occupation, party endorsement, and BLM support separate Black men from the rest of the respondents. Segmenting the data reveals how preferences vary across voter demographics. In summary, race and support for BLM are consistently the most important attributes driving voters' candidate preferences across all groups analyzed. Black candidates were strongly preferred over other races by wide margins. This suggests race may override other factors when voters evaluate candidates. Support for BLM matters, but its importance varies across groups. It was more influential for the general electorate than for Black male voters specifically. This implies BLM support motivates some voter segments more than others.