2024 Black Voter Project Longitudinal Study: Wave 2 Results
The 2024 Black Voter Project (BVP) Longitudinal Study
The 2024 National Black Voter Project (BVP) survey is a longitudinal study of Black public opinion. The survey, in collaboration with Black Insights Research (BIR), is part of a national (nonpartisan) series of public opinion polls that aims to capture the opinion dynamics of the Black community. The first wave was fielded from March 29 – April 18, 2024, surveying respondents about politics and society. A total of 2,004 African-American respondents were interviewed, and the survey had an average interview length of 18 mins.
The second wave, fielded July 27 – August 19, 2024, included 1,621 respondents, 1,146 of which were recontacted after participating in Wave 1 of the survey. The second wave also included an oversample of 475 respondents from 7 swing states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, and WI), leaving a total of 731 respondents in swing states (recontact and new oversample) for comparison. Wave 2 of the survey had an average interview length of 20 minutes. The surveys, administered by YouGov, are stratified across age, education, gender, and region, collecting a nationally representative sample of respondents from all 50 states.
The surveys serve as the first two (of four) waves of Black public opinion leading up to the election. Unlike almost all data on Black communities, the BVP/BIR study is based on a design in which participants are recontacted over a period of time. This is key in that it’s capable of capturing change over time, something other studies aren’t equipped to accomplish. This is rare data: it’s only the second study of its kind in the last forty years, i.e., one that addresses the political preferences and behavior of the Black community.
2024 BVP Wave 2 Results
The move by the Democratic Party to replace Joe Biden as the nominee with Kamala Harris had a profound affect on Black public opinion and political behavior. Due to it’s unique longitudinal design, the 2024 Black Voter Project study offers unique insights. Unlike almost all data on Black communities, the BVP/Black Insights study is based on a design in which participants are recontacted over a period of time. This is key in that it’s capable of capturing change over time, something other studies aren’t equipped to accomplish. Again, this is rare data. The following highlights some of the findings from the first two waves of the study.
By recontacting the same people, this study can tell us both how Black attitudes and behavior change over time and why it changes. Looking specifically at descriptive results (the what) Black attitudes toward Harris changed dramatically once she became the official nominee (for the why, see here). To start, favorability toward Kamala Harris increased across almost every demographic group (except Republicans):
Overall, the percentage of Black Americans who rated Harris as very favorable (8-10. on a 10 pt. scale) jumped +19%, from 43% in Wave 1 to 62% in Wave 2.
There was a significant increase in the percentage of both Black men (+21%) and women (+20%) who rated Harris very favorable in Wave 2 (compared to Wave 1).
Other demographic groups that experienced significant increases in the percent rating Harris very favorable from Wave 1 to Wave to were: respondents with an HS or less education (+21%), Democrats (+21%), and those with a strong sense of Black identity (+12%).
When considering political factors, the percent rating Harris very favorable increased by a whopping 22% among those who disagree with the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe v. Wade (Dobbs case), and the data even suggests an increase in favorability (+17%) among Black non-voters who did not vote at all in 2020.
In addition to attitudes toward Harris (favorability), the switch from Biden to Harris also significantly increased the percentage of Black respondents intending to vote for the Democratic candidate. Here the data suggests positive changes in vote share for Harris across all demographic groups, this time even including Republicans:
The percentage of Black Americans who said they would vote for Harris increased by +10%, from 62% for Biden (in April) to 72% for Harris (in August), with only 13% voting for Trump. Among likely voters, the Black vote share for Harris grows even more to 84% compared to only 12% of likely voters supporting Trump.
Other significant shifts in vote share occurred among women (+14%), respondents with an HS or less education (+15%), independents (+15%), and, again, those with a strong sense of Black identity (+9%). Even Republicans experience a slight increase in vote share (+6%) for the democratic candidate with Harris on the ticket as opposed to Biden.
Furthermore, just as with favorability, the percentage of respondents voting for Harris also shifted based on political factors, such as among those who opposed the Dobbs court decision (+8%) and even those who did not vote at all in 2020 (+8%).
Lastly, moving Harris to the top of the Democratic Party ticket also increased the percentage of Black respondents who said they “Definitely will vote” for president in 2024:
Among all respondents, 67% now say they will definitely vote, compared to 58% when Biden was the nominee (an increase of +9%).
The largest jumps in voter likelihood were with: women (+11%), respondents with an HS or less education (+14%), and independents (+13%). Black men weren’t too far behind, as 6% more said they would definitely vote with Harris as the nominee.
There were major differences in age, as 7% more Black respondents 40 and over reported they would now definitely vote, compared to only 1% more among those under 40 years old.
Finally, although there are more (+5%) non-voters voters (who did not participate at all in 2020) ready to participate with Harris as the nominee instead of Biden, three-quarters of those same non-voters remain content to sit this election out as well, so there is still a great deal of work to be done.
